Oh, so you thought Islam Makhachev versus Alexander Volkanovski was a done deal? Think again. This is MMA, where nothing is ever cut-and-dried.

After Makhachev dominated the great Charles Oliveira at UFC 280 on Oct. 22 to capture the lightweight title, there was plenty of momentum for him to defend his belt against featherweight champ Volkanovski, who used to fight at lightweight (and welterweight) and was keen to move up a weight class to vie for the 155-pound title and a chance to become just the fifth fighter to simultaneously hold two UFC belts at the same time.

The two men went so far as to meet in the Octagon following Makhachev’s victory. But since then, confusion has set in. Volkanovski suggested on Twitter that Makhachev wasn’t quite as eager for the bout as he seemed to be while renewing a call for the fight to happen in his home country of Australia.

Makhachev himself, while indicating he was looking for his next fight, also expressed confusion and a little frustration over the logistics surrounding the bout, opening the door to further uncertainty.

Here’s what we know for sure: Volkanovski is the UFC’s current pound-for-pound kingpin and has earned a shot at double-champ status. Makhachev, after being unranked on that illustrious list prior to UFC 280, is now third, behind only Volkanovski and middleweight champ Israel Adesanya. These are two highly skilled and terrifying champs, one with surefire Hall of Fame credentials and one who looks to be well on his way.

But that doesn’t magically make Volk-Makhachev happen. So, what’s realistic for the Dagestani’s first title defense? Here are the three options.

Alexander Volkanovski

OK, let’s get this one out of the way. Even with fresh doubt surrounding the matchup, it’s probably still the most likely scenario.

Reading between the lines, the key hang-up here appears to be location. Volkanovski’s home country of Australia was originally expected to be the landing spot, but Las Vegas now appears to be in the mix.

No matter where it happens, here’s hoping they can get something done. Makhachev (5’10”) would have a size advantage, making his stellar grappling game even harder to deal with.

But Volkanovski is an MMA computer and an absolute machine in the striking game, where he leads active featherweights in significant strike accuracy (56.6 percent) and striking differential (3.12) while sitting third in strikes landed per minute (6.97), per UFC stats. This is a guy who knows how to find your chin. He’ll need that tool to tame the Makhachev attack.

Any of these fights would be compelling, but this one would be appointment viewing.

Beneil Dariush

Perhaps hoping to boost his own case, Dariush recently told Bella Michaels of ABC affiliate KRGV (h/t Harvey Leonard of MMA News) that Volk-Makhachev may not be a done deal just yet—and perhaps not the best idea even if it is:

“I don’t know who I’m fighting. The UFC’s talking about making Makhachev and Volkanovski happen, but that’s not for sure either. If you think about it, there’s people [Volkanovski] can fight and there’s people Islam can fight, and then they can build that fight up in the future, the lightweight champion and the featherweight champion. We’ll see what happens. I’m not really sure.”

The best way to help one’s own cause, of course, is to take care of business on the field of competition and to do so in a way that will stick in the minds of fans and UFC brass. Mission accomplished on that front for Dariush, who hammered favored hot shot Mateusz Gamrot over three rounds for a unanimous-decision victory further down the UFC 280 main card. It was Dariush’s eighth straight win, dating back to 2018.

Oliveira may have a case for a rematch, but it’s not as strong as that of other fighters who have yet to face Makhachev. Why? Because he was just dominated by Makhachev. Usually instant rematches only happen following a controversial decision. Plus, with a division this deep, it’s time to open the playing field a bit.

Dariush may not have massive name value, but he’s been trying his level best to change that with his work inside of the cage. It may be ready to pay off in the form of a title shot. If not, a title eliminator between Dariush and Oliveira could help clear up the back end of the contender picture.

Winner Between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler

These two will do battle on the UFC 281 main card going down at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 12.

After this possibility and the others listed here, there’s a steep drop-off among the other candidates in terms of likelihood. But if the UFC decides Volkanovski will stay at 145 pounds for now—or the pair can’t get a deal done—or if the promotion believes that Dariush still lacks the star power needed to tentpole a pay-per-view, either of these men would be a ready-made challenge for Makhachev.

Add in the intrigue that comes from the fact that Poirier, maybe the most famous non-Conor McGregor lightweight in the world, was beaten pretty handily by retired lightweight GOAT and Makhachev friend and mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov back in 2019.

Poirier versus Chandler seems to contain some legitimate bad blood, which, knowing these two, will mean another master class in hand-to-hand violence. A Fight of the Night-level performance, which is entirely plausible, would springboard the winner into the thick of this discussion.

One fun aspect of this stems from the fact that Makhachev is relatively new to the elite levels of his division—arguably only since beating Oliveira. So he has yet to tangle with most of the killers that exist at lightweight, the UFC’s deepest, most talent-rich weight class. That means all sorts of fresh matchmaking possibilities with top-tier guys like Poirier or Chandler.

These guys are in the third slot on the UFC 281 pay-per-view—pretty prime territory considering the main and co-main are both title fights. If they show out, that could change this equation in a heartbeat, especially if Volk-Makhachev continues to hit snags.

Source: Bleacher Report